- Machine
- R250 000
- Net a month
- R31 579
- Break-even
- 2 a day
- Gross profit a day
- R1 350
B2B. The site buys control of its own consumables and signs a contract to get it.
Working paper · Vending · South Africa
You asked whether I had looked past the three. I had not, so here are twenty-nine formats screened on the same arithmetic: what the machine costs, what it sells for, how many a day it must move, and how far volume can fall before it stops earning. Three clear the bar. Five are illegal or blocked.
Every format is put through one formula, so the table compares businesses rather than brochures.
Take the ticket, multiply by a fair day's volume at a site that would actually take the machine, apply the gross margin, then subtract three real costs: the site's commission on turnover, card and cash handling at about 4%, and a maintenance provision. What is left is the net a month. Divide the machine's cost by it and you have the payback.
The second number matters more than the first. Break-even is how many units a day the machine needs just to stand still. A format that pays back in 20 months but needs 90% of its expected volume to survive is a worse bet than one that pays back in 24 and needs a third. That ratio is the fragility column, and it is the honest test of a vending site.
These are modelled estimates, not supplier quotes. Machine prices move with the exchange rate, and site commissions are negotiated per landlord. Any one of these needs a written quote and a signed site before money moves. What the screen is good for is ruling things out cheaply.
A flat front view of each machine, at the cabinet it actually ships in — glass front, coil or carousel, payment pad, delivery slot. Drawn to size, not photographed, so nothing here goes stale or needs a licence.
Twenty-four formats that trade, sorted by how fast the machine earns itself back. Five more sit in section 6 because a law, not a spreadsheet, decides them.
| Format | Where it sits | Machine | Ticket | Margin | Per day | Break-even | Back in | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPE / MRO vending (factory, mine) | Industrial | R250 000 | R180 | 25% | 30 | 2/day | 8 mo | Build |
| Instant coffee | Factory | R60 000 | R8 | 50% | 70 | 17/day | 14 mo | Build |
| Protein / gym shake dispenser | Gym | R95 432 | R38 | 72% | 14 | 3/day | 17 mo | Build |
| Tool crib / asset locker | Industrial | R400 000 | R500 | 20% | 10 | 1/day | 18 mo | Watch |
| Bulk refill (detergent, oil, grain) | Retail | R665 000 | R85 | 30% | 100 | 13/day | 20 mo | Watch |
| Bean-to-cup coffee | Office | R95 000 | R15 | 45% | 55 | 15/day | 22 mo | Watch |
| Phone screen protector + accessories | Mall | R227 310 | R120 | 55% | 10 | 2/day | 25 mo | Watch |
| Sweets / toys / capsule | Mall | R45 000 | R10 | 55% | 25 | 6/day | 26 mo | Watch |
| Power bank / phone charging rental | Mall | R60 000 | R15 | 75% | 12 | 4/day | 34 mo | Thin |
| Water ATM (refill per litre) | Community | R250 000 | R5 | 60% | 150 | 50/day | 38 mo | Thin |
| Umbrella rental | Mall | R45 000 | R30 | 85% | 3 | 1/day | 40 mo | Thin |
| Baked goods | Community | R120 000 | R25 | 45% | 20 | 8/day | 42 mo | Thin |
| Sanitary products | Campus | R75 000 | R25 | 45% | 8 | 4/day | 83 mo | Thin |
| Biltong | Mall | R110 000 | R45 | 35% | 20 | 8/day | 86 mo | Thin |
| Parcel locker | Retail | R350 000 | R8 | 65% | 50 | 15/day | 88 mo | Thin |
| Ice vending | Retail | R220 000 | R20 | 55% | 30 | 20/day | 117 mo | Thin |
| Snack + cold drink combo | Mall | R120 000 | R18 | 30% | 55 | 17/day | 125 mo | Thin |
| Eggs (6-pack) | Community | R95 000 | R40 | 22% | 18 | 10/day | 146 mo | Thin |
| Medicine (Schedule 0 only) | Pharmacy | R300 000 | R60 | 30% | 12 | 5/day | 216 mo | Thin |
| Fresh flowers | Mall | R140 000 | R150 | 40% | 5 | 3/day | 291 mo | Thin |
| Fresh produce (veg box) | Community | R180 000 | R30 | 35% | 15 | 11/day | 312 mo | Thin |
| Ice cream / frozen yoghurt | Mall | R150 000 | R25 | 40% | 22 | 15/day | never | No |
| Sponsor-funded condom dispenser | Community | R50 000 | — | 0% | 40 | — | never | Funded |
| Airtime / data top-up kiosk | Retail | R40 000 | R30 | 4% | 80 | 32/day | never | No |
Months to earn back the machine at a fair site. The dashed line is the 24-month bar.
Two of these I missed completely the first time. One I got right for the wrong reason.
B2B. The site buys control of its own consumables and signs a contract to get it.
Cheap machine, cheap cup. Only works where nobody will pay R15 for coffee.
The one you asked about. Powder lands near R180/kg; a 30 g serve is R5.40 of the R38.
Tool crib / asset locker (18 months) · Bulk refill (detergent, oil, grain) (20 months) · Bean-to-cup coffee (22 months) · Phone screen protector + accessories (25 months) · Sweets / toys / capsule (26 months). All five are viable; they sit behind the three above on capital efficiency, not on quality.
PPE and MRO vending — gloves, earplugs, grinding discs, safety glasses — dispensed on a factory floor or a mine site. The ticket is R180, not R18, the site pays by invoice, there is no cash to steal, no food to spoil, and the buyer is a safety manager with a budget and an audit. It repays in about eight months. Every consumer format on this list is fighting for a corridor; this one is sold, once, to one client.
A snack and cold-drink combo costs about R120 000 and sells R18 items at roughly 30%. At 55 sales a day it takes 125 months to return the machine. It only works at a workplace doing 150+ a day, which is a different business from the one people start.
Instant coffee pays back in 13 months and bean-to-cup in 21, which is backwards until you notice that Bunacoffee and Dallmayr install bean-to-cup machines free on a pay-per-cup contract. You cannot sell a R15 flat white from a machine you had to buy when the office next door is paying nothing for its machine.
Seventeen months here against 16.8 in the build model — the difference is only how maintenance is spread. It stays the cheapest credible consumer test on the list: R95 000, one gym, and a break-even of three shakes a day.
These are the formats people ask about most, and each one dies on a rule rather than on arithmetic.
| Format | Why it is closed | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Cigarettes | Tobacco Products Control Act 83 of 1993 limits vending to designated smoking areas; the Tobacco Products and Electronic Delivery Systems Control Bill (B33-2022) bans vending machine sales outright. | Bill before Parliament |
| Vape / e-cigarettes | Same Bill. It bans display at point of sale and vending machine sales, and adds a nicotine-product regime a machine cannot comply with. | Bill before Parliament |
| Alcohol | A liquor licence attaches to premises and a licence holder, not to a machine in a corridor. Workable only inside a licensed venue that already sells it. | Premises-bound |
| Crypto ATM / kiosk | The FIC recorded crypto ATM legality as still under consideration with the FSCA in 2025. You would be building on an unresolved rule. | Unresolved |
| Lottery tickets | The terminal estate belongs to the licensed national operator — Sizekhaya took the licence over on 1 June 2026. A third party cannot bolt a terminal on. | Licence-bound |
Machine prices, margins and the legal position, with the anchors used.
Assumptions: 26 trading days a month; gross margin is on the ticket after product cost only; site commission 5–15% of turnover by channel; card and cash handling at 2–4%; maintenance provision 2% of machine cost a year. Volumes are a fair site, not a best site. Companion to Vending in South Africa — three machines, one verdict, which carries the full build model, the five-year fleet and the valuation.